Bitcoin BTC/USD is buckling under the weight of a mini bear market, with fading momentum, weak technical signals, and a dearth of fresh catalysts dragging prices down, according to a Tuesday market note from 10x Research.
The firm predicts the leading cryptocurrency will remain trapped between $73,000 and $94,000 in the near term, absent a significant shift in market dynamics.
https://x.com/10x_Research/status/1906998212239765877?t=ohwCKLugyq3O-UpKp-v0qA&s=19
Technical Weakness Signals Deeper Bearish Trend
In its report, 10x Research highlighted Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim key levels, noting it’s trading below its critical trend model threshold of $88,000—a bellwether for bull-to-bear transitions. The cryptocurrency also lingers beneath its 21-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator, while facing stiff resistance at the short-term holder’s realized price of $93,000.
A fleeting bounce to $88,500 fizzled out, with traders dumping positions at breakeven, amplifying bearish pressure. “There’s little doubt from on-chain data that Bitcoin is in at least a mini-bear market,” the firm stated, cementing its cautious stance unless momentum reverses.
Macro and Market Sentiment Add to the Gloom
The broader environment isn’t helping Bitcoin’s case. Depressed funding rates reflect waning risk appetite, and retail investor activity has nosedived—stung by billions lost in meme tokens like Trump TRUMP/USD after exchange listings peaked, offering insiders exit liquidity. ETF outflows have persisted for two months, with hedge funds retreating from arbitrage trades as low funding rates sap profitability.
“Without a meaningful rise in funding rates, it’s unlikely ETF inflows return to their former strength,” 10x noted. Meanwhile, hopes of a June Fed rate cut are fading, with sticky inflation and robust labor data pushing expectations to September.
Political tailwinds, like Trump’s Bitcoin Price predictions reserve pitch, lack substance—10x dismissed them as narrative hype, noting, “Holding confiscated Bitcoins doesn’t create buying pressure.”
https://x.com/10x_Research/status/1906829959622254747?t=jaqbakjBsUIeYR8g3OnfrA&s=19
Bitcoin Holds Firm Against Struggling Altcoins
Despite the dour outlook, Bitcoin shows resilience compared to altcoins, many of which are lagging badly, per 10x’s proprietary model blending total crypto market cap and Bitcoin dominance. Standouts like Tron TRX/USD and Toncoin TON/USD have defied the slump, possibly buoyed by geopolitical advantages. Still, the firm sees Bitcoin’s near-term path as volatile yet range-bound.
“The current market structure is fragile,” analysts warned, suggesting options strategies—selling puts near $73,000 or calls near $94,000—as a play on this stagnation. Without a macro jolt or bullish spark, 10x expects the mini bear market to persist, keeping Bitcoin on a leash.